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It makes it possible to extend climate impact analysis to regions and countries for which there are no detailed data from hospital records as only coarse monthly data on mortality are needed.The danger of climate change lies not necessarily in the shift in average temperatures, but more so the increase in frequency of extreme heat events.
Climate change is a major environmental threat and likely one of the most important challenges of our time.
In particular, climate extremes –such as heat waves– can have a significant negative effect on society.
While this should be a focal point for policy makers, the costs of climate change tend to be presented within an expected utility framework.
Yet, the potential behavioral reactions to this uncertainty are –so far– neither explored nor accounted for in game-theoretic models of climate coalition building.
While no single event can be proved to be the result of climate change, many climatic trends and events that have been observed already are consistent with scientific predictions.
The main source of scientific information on climate change is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was set up in 1988 by the UN Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. Instead it gathers thousands of scientists to review the global body of knowledge about climate change and to summarize it in a way that policymakers can use.The second essay finds that a scenario of moderate warming can have a positive net effect on some European countries, creating winners and losers.In contrast –severe warming as a result of failed climate change mitigation policies– affects all examined European countries in a negative way. As a result of the uncertainty associated with it, climate change poses a different challenge than other social dilemma situations: The negative effects of climate change do not necessarily take place incrementally.In nonindustrialized countries many people think that the climate is under divine control and that humans can not alter it.Faced with these divergent views, journalists who report on climate change have complex work to do.It tends to be highest in winter and lowest in summer.The nonlinear trend follows changes in health policies, economic growth rates, and other institutional factors.The first essays shows that singular spectrum analysis can be used for the estimation of this base rate mortality and thus allows to isolate the impacts of climate extremes on human mortality.This methodology is an improvement over approaches based on fixed effects or classic spectral analysis.This body of evidence led the IPCC to conclude in 2007 that climate change is happening, that humans are almost certainly to blame for the majority of observed warming, and that future impacts could be abrupt and irreversible.As with all IPCC assessment reports, these findings were only published after they had been endorsed by the world’s governments.